"By this time next year..." revisited!

On November 2nd, 2007, I wrote "By this time next year...", an article containing predictions about what would happen in the gaming industry between then and November 2nd, 2008. Let's take a look at how well my predictions fared...

"...Star Fox Wii will have been announced for an early 2009 release." = WRONG

Augh, not off to a good start, am I? Star Fox Wii hasn't even been hinted at yet, much less announced for early next year. On the bright side, though, we did get confirmation on the development of Pikmin 3...

"...Animal Crossing Wii will have launched in all major markets." = WRONG

Oh, and I was so close, too! Sadly, it was a little less than two weeks after the deadline that City Folk was released in any region, so that's another prediction that bites the dust.

"...a new design of the Nintendo DS will be announced." = Correct!

A-ha, finally, I strike back! And not only has the DSi been announced, it's even launched in Japan! If only the rest of the world didn't have to wait so long...

"...at least two more game systems will be added to the Virtual Console." = Correct!

Score another one for me! In the last year, both the Neo Geo and SEGA Master System were added to the North American Virtual Console catalog. Furthermore, the European store has seen the addition of the Commodore 64 to its ranks.

"...the obligatory third Pokemon game of the generation will be released." = Correct!

Pokémon Platinum was released in Japan in September 2008, adding one more game to the pile, and one more point to my score!

"...over 20 million Wii systems will have been sold worldwide." = Correct!

Oh, if only I knew how right I was! The Wii's almost doubled that number, reaching roughly 35 1/2 million units sold worldwide as of September 2008! For all we know, the Wii could have already reached 40 million by now. I'm sure Nintendo will be all too happy to alert us when the landmark is reached.

"...Duke Nukem Forever will remain unreleased." = Correct!

I believe I'll let Professor Obvious field this one:


Thank you, professor.

So then, that's five right, and two wrong. I'd say that's a pretty darned good ratio right there! Now then, time for a new round of predictions! Annual tradition? You betcha! So then, by this time next year...

...at least one more console will be added to the North American Virtual Console
...Star Fox Wii will have been announced for an early 2010 release (I'm not giving up on this!)
...the true successor to the DS line of handhelds will have been announced
...Nintendo still won't have released a true solution to the Wii storage problem
...Wii sales will surpass 60 million worldwide
...the combined sales of the Nintendo DS, DS Lite and DSi will overtake the Playstation 2's record sales of 140 million+
...Mother 3 will still be landlocked in Japan, without any sort of announcements made for a release outside of its homeland
...at least two more Pokémon games will have been released (Main series and/or spin-offs)

The least likely of all the above would probably have to be the DS sales outdoing the PS2, with everything else hovering around the 70% range for probability. Will my predictions turn out true? The only way to find out is to wait for December 3rd, 2009...

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Tomorrow's Nintendo press conference: Predictions, hopes and doubts

I've been waiting to use this image again for a loooong time.



It's not uncommon for Nintendo fans to go months without information on games from their favourite developer. So when we hear the words "press conference", we usually go all sorts of insane. My first reaction to this sort of thing is to start thinking up what might happen at the event, and this press conference is no different. At the same time, my imagination goes wild with extremely unlikely hopes for announcements. I also consider some downright almost-certainly-not-going-to-happen announcements and reveals. So what will most likely happen? What do I dearly wish will happen? And what is most likely not going to occur at all? My predictions, hopes and doubts follow.

Predictions

These are the things I'm almost sure will happen. I doubt all of them will show up at this conference, but I have a good feeling at least one of them will.

Assets for Animal Crossing Wii will be shown

This game has been in a bizarre state of confirmation for quite some time. Nintendo is making it, and they're well aware that we know this. On several occasions, they pretty much outright confirmed it's existance. But still, there's no screenshots, video, official announcements or anything. Come tomorrow, though, I think this will change.

I'm willing to bet that we'll see at least some concept art or screenshots. Perhaps a trailer, and maybe some separate in-game footage. But I'm nearly certain we'll see at least something. And when it happens, I'll be sure to squeal with fanboyish delight.

Some news on Disaster: Day of Crisis

Of all the currently-announced Nintendo projects, Disaster: Day of Crisis is probably the one I'm most looking forward to. Even though we've seen little more than a five-second trailer and a few screenshots, I'm just so incredibly hyped for this title. And don't ask why, but I have this incredibly strong feeling that we'll be seeing some more on this game. Whether it's a new trailer, some screenshots or a name change, I'm almost positive this game will make some sort of an appearance.

The third fourth-generation Pokémon will be revealed

It's been almost a year since Pokémon Diamond and Pearl debuted in North America. I think it's about time we see the third game of the generation announced, don't you? After all, every conventional Pokémon generation (Not counting Firered and Leafgreen, which are remakes) has had three games: Two games released at the same time, with a third released later on. The third game always has some sort of special aspect to it, such as a tweaked storyline or additional areas.

It's been so long since Diamond and Pearl came out, and I've been thinking we'll see the third game soon for quite some time. To me, tomorrow seems like the perfect time and place.

Wii Channel news

This is an incredibly vague prediction, so it really can mean pretty much anything. Whether the news is a new channel, an upcoming update to an existing channel or the long-awaited release date Everybody's Nintendo Channel. I'm really hoping it's the latter, because we've really been waiting for ages and ages to get some info.

Hopes

These are all things I hope very much will happen, but seem improbable for one reason or another. Whether or not any of the following happens is beyond me, but I'd sure be happy if some of it did!

An F-Zero, Star Fox or Pikmin sequel to be announced

Come on, how awesome would this be? A new F-Zero on the Wii, with online play and Excite Truck-style steering! Or a new Star Fox game exactly like the one I yakked about back in June! And what about that new Pikmin everyone keeps begging for, with Shigeru Miyamoto-approved motion controls!

However, this remains merely a hope because of how relatively low-profile this press conference is going to be. It's not like E3 or the Tokyo Game Show, so we really shouldn't expect anything too huge. But still...

A solution to the Wii's puny 512 MB memory

Nobody can deny this: The Wii's default memory capacity sucks. SD Cards stream too slowly to be viable solutions, and the Wii-fridgerator idea is way too clunky and time-consuming. We need a hard drive, and we need it yesterday. With all these Virtual Console downloads, gamesaves and the impending WiiWare launch, space on our Wii's memory is going to become even more scarce. I really hope Nintendo's working out a solution to this.

But, no matter how hard I hope, it just doesn't seem like something Nintendo would do. Hard drives are expensive, and they just don't fit with the sort of approach Nintendo is taking. So as much as I'd like for it to happen, I doubt we'll see this tomorrow, if at all.

Doubts

These are announcements that I neither expect or really anticipate all that much. If they don't happen, meh, okay. If they do, ok, cool. I really don't care much either way. Not that it matters, since these are almost surely not going to happen.

New Wii colours

While it would be kind of cool to see a red or black Wii, I really don't see it happening. First of all, the Wii is already selling like mad. Sales don't need a kick in the butt just yet. Second, Nintendo's already having trouble keeping up with demand. New colours would just divide their resources even more. I don't think we'll be seeing new Wii colours for quite some time yet.

A new DS remodel

Whatever they do to make the next DS remodel different, it probably won't be happening for a while. To start, DS Lite's are still selling fairly well in almost every one of the world's markets. Also, what exactly could they change about the DS Lite to warrant another model? It's already incredibly small, it has a great battery life, and the screens are crystal clear. Any possible improvements are incredibly minor. I think we'll be seeing an entirely new generation of handhelds first, and that's far too big for a relatively minor event such as this.

So then, my predictions have been made, my hopes are stated, and my doubts are placed. Time to sit back and watch how things go down.

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The Duck Has Spoken.

How much change to a Virtual Console game is too much?

Think of tonight's article as if this post crashed into this one, and somehow became readable. Best way I can describe it.



It was recently announced that Pokémon Snap would receive a Wii-specific update when it hits the Virtual Console. This is big news, because no Virtual Console game so far has seen such an change. But as I said in "Remakes: How much change is too much?", changing a classic game when remaking or porting it somewhat takes away from the nostalgia. However, I am not against this improvement to Pokémon Snap. Why is this? Allow me to explain.

Unlike adding new characters to Super Mario 64, adding the ability to send pictures taken in Pokémon Snap to friends doesn't take away from the classic aspect of the game. In the original Pokémon Snap on the Nintendo 64, players could print their pictures onto stickers at Blockbuster and Toys 'R' Us stores across the country. If anything, adding the online trading of images replaces the absence of sticker making.

Of course, this addition makes some think "Well, if they can add this, why not online play?". Well, as I said in "Should Virtual Console games be online?", adding online play to a Virtual Console game would not only cost extra money, it would spread Nintendo's resources even more thin. People working on other, more anticipated Nintendo games would instead be diverted to adding an online aspect to a game made over ten years ago. Do you really want to take attention away from Mario Kart Wii in order to play Mario Party 3 online? I don't.

Then you may say "Well, people have to be diverted to add this feature to Pokémon Snap, do they not?". Touché, worthy debating opponent, but adding a picture-sending aspect to Pokémon Snap is hardly a huge undertaking. After all, we're already able to send pictures and messages from Wii to Wii. All that's being added to Snap is the ability to save images to the message board, and they're sent from there. Really, very little is being added to the game.



So I think adding the picture saving to Pokémon Snap is great. I always loved showing off my pics to my family with the original game, and now I'll be able to take it even further. With this new aspect, as well as the refined textures Nintendo 64 games always receive, Pokémon Snap could become my favorite Virtual Console game yet. Heck, I haven't even played it yet, and I already love it!

The Duck Has Spoken.

Mini-article: By this time next year...

Here's a mini-article for ya! Should be followed up by a full-length article if all goes as planned. If not, you'll be seeing that article on Monday instead.



I like predicting things. It's fun, and it helps get people excited for the future. So here are a few I've thought up.

By this time next year...

...Star Fox Wii will have been announced for an early 2009 release.
...Animal Crossing Wii will have launched in all major markets.
...a new design of the Nintendo DS will be announced.
...at least two more game systems will be added to the Virtual Console.
...the obligatory third Pokemon game of the generation will be released.
...over 20 million Wii systems will have been sold worldwide.
...Duke Nukem Forever will remain unreleased.

That last one is really obvious! As for the others, I'm seeing a probability of 70%+ for all of them.

Remember this article come November 2008, folks! Who knows, I may have to change my name to PsychicDuck!

The Duck Has Spoken.

Should Virtual Console games be online?

Sorry for the late article! Saw Ratatouille today and it totally messed up my schedule. ON TO THE ARTICLE!!!



Ever since the Virtual Console was first announced, people thought "Hey, wouldn't it be great if we could play our multiplayer VC games online?". Well, here's my take on that popular question.

When Nintendo first announced the Virtual Console last March, they said that the point of the Virtual Console was to deliver classic gaming experiences to the homes of Wii owners. Wouldn't adding online functionality to the software then destroy the game's classical structure? Well, I suppose many could argue that it is still feasible, since Kid Icarus and The Legend of Zelda both received minor tweaks, such as changing some passwords and correcting a typo or two. So if those games can be edited, why not Mario Kart, Mario Party and Star Fox 64, then?

For starters, these would not be "minor tweaks". Nintendo would have to add new menus, status screens, name entries and more to these classic games, pulling them very far away from their original form. The massive reworking would also cost Nintendo much more than usual, and most likely result in a higher download fee. Some people complain that Virtual Console games are already overpriced, so do we really want to make the games cost more?

There's also the problem that Nintendo is already extremely busy making new games for the Wii and DS. Do we really want Nintendo to divert developers busy with Mario and Smash Bros. to add functionality to games that have already been around for over ten years? Sure, this wouldn't take too big a chunk out of the developers' time, but still, every little bit of time making a game counts! A mere week extra of production time can help a game greatly, and taking that week instead to slap online onto Mario Kart 64 could harm the new software's quality.

Finally, there's the issue of how much space these additions would take up. The Wii's paltry 512 MB internal memory is already bursting at the seams with saved game files, channels and other Virtual Console games. Do you want it to get even MORE cramped in there?

No, online isn't the way to go with Virtual Console games. There are just too many problems with it. If not the fact that it tarnishes the games' original format, it also takes developers away from much more urgent and awaited projects.

Could it happen? Maybe. But I just don't think it will. What are your opinions on the matter?

The Duck Has Spoken.